Federal Reserve Poised to Cut Interest Rates in September: Minutes

The meeting summary of the policymaking Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) highlighted that U.S. central bank officials are becoming increasingly confident that inflation is moving toward the institution’s target of 2 percent.
With employment risks forming and inflation challenges decreasing, most participants agreed that easing policy restrictions would be appropriate next month.
“Participants viewed the incoming data as enhancing their confidence that inflation was moving toward the committee’s objective,” the minutes read. “The vast majority observed that if the data continued to come in about as expected, it would likely be appropriate to ease policy at the next meeting.”
“Several” meeting participants noted that there was a “plausible case” supporting a rate cut at the July meeting amid the progress on inflation and the increase in the unemployment rate.
At the same time, a “couple” of participants noted that inflationary pressures could persist because “the economy had considerable momentum, and that, even with some easing of the demand for labor, the labor market remained strong.”
Staff economists trimmed their growth outlook for the second half of 2024 “in response to weaker-than-expected labor market indicators.”
“As a result, the output gap at the start of 2025 was somewhat narrower than had been previously projected, although still not fully closed,” the minutes read. “Over 2025 and 2026, real GDP growth was expected to rise about in line with potential, leaving the output gap roughly flat in those years. The unemployment rate was expected to edge up slightly over the remainder of 2024 and then to remain roughly unchanged in 2025 and 2026.”
Many participants warned that easing restrictive policy “too little or too late” could threaten “unduly weakening economic activity or employment.”
Following the July policy meeting, the Fed left its benchmark interest rate at a 23-year high within a range of 5.25 percent to 5.5 percent.
“The broad sense of the committee is that the economy is moving closer to the point at which it will be appropriate to reduce our policy rate,” Powell said at a post-meeting news conference on July 31.
“The question will be whether the totality of the data, the evolving outlook in the balance of risks, are consistent with rising confidence on inflation and maintaining a solid labor market. If that test is met, a reduction in our policy rate could be on the table as soon as the next meeting in September.”
Powell told reporters that as the Fed observes “broader disinflation” across the economy and dissipating upside inflation risks, one “would think policy rates would move down from here.”
With the Fed close to restoring price stability—one of the institution’s chief mandates—Powell noted that there could be more of a focus on the job market.
Officials have been unwinding its holdings, including Treasury bonds, since June 2022. It is unclear whether the central bank plans to maintain its sizable post-COVID-19 pandemic balance sheet for the foreseeable future.
Powell told reporters this spring that the Fed’s balance sheet tapering efforts could come to a close soon.
In June, policymakers announced that they would lower the cap for how much Treasurys can mature without being reinvested to $25 billion per month from $60 billion.
A chorus of Fed officials, including Lorie Logan, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, have said that slowing the amount of tapering could allow the central bank to continue its balance sheet runoff without disrupting financial markets.
That said, it is unlikely that the Fed will lower its balance sheet to where it was a decade ago, according to Rob Haworth, senior investment strategy director for U.S. Bank Wealth Management.
U.S. Treasury yields maintained their sea of red ink. The benchmark 10-year yield slumped below 3.77 percent. The two- and 30-year yields dropped to 3.9 percent and 4.04 percent, respectively.
The U.S. Dollar Index, a metric of the greenback against a basket of currencies, extended its losses midweek, falling to 101. The index erased its year-to-date gain, and is now down by about 0.3 percent.